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Abstract
The State of Cesar is one of the leading producers of building
materials in the Colombian northern coast. Hence, the importance of
performing an analysis concerning this particular issue through strategic
planning by scenarios –“Strategic Foresight.”– In that vein, the use of
MICMAC and SMIC software allowed to identify strategic variables,
as well as to simulate the prospective scenarios through the collection
provided by mining companies and the analysis of the technical and
legal information of the Office of Mining and Environmental Authority.
It is important to highlight that the selected mining rights comply in
conformity with the resolution 151 of 2018. Based on the obtained
results, legal certainty, mining control, and compliance with environmental
management plans were determined as the most influential strategic
variables. These variables were evaluated and rated by a panel of experts,
and with the application of the cross impact matrix technique, five
plausible scenarios in a projection to the year 2035, were obtained.
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